Boeing and Airbus were measured by forecasts on the air cargo market

At no point did they agree. The only thing that is more or less in solidarity with both concerns is that the market growth will slow down compared to the last three decades.

The air cargo market will grow by approximately 3.8% annually in the next 20 years, Airbus representative Maria Shlyakhtova told Vedomosti. Boeing for the same period gives a more optimistic forecast. According to the representative of the concern Elena Aleksandrova, the growth may be 4.2% per year. However, this is still below the indicators that the market has demonstrated over the past 35 years, when the annual increase was 5.2%.

According to Airbus estimates, the world fleet of cargo planes will increase from 1,600 to 2,400 units. At the same time, about 700 airliners will be purchased directly from the plants. And according to this point, Boeing’s calculations again differ in a big way. By 2036 the world park will increase to 3,030 vessels. Since the industry, considering the write-off of old aircraft, will need 2,480 liners, of which 920 will be new.

By the take-off weight in the next 20 years, the most popular will be airliners with an average load-carrying capacity, according to Airbus. During this period, the market will need about 950 such vessels. Forecasts Boeing gravitate to heavy aircraft. According to Elena Alexandrova, out of 920 new aircraft, 490 ships or 53% will be for large wide-body aircraft with a carrying capacity of more than 80 tons. While medium-sized wide-bodied vessels with carrying capacity from 40 to 80 tons will have only 430 airliners or 47%.

Recall that, according to the Federal Air Transport Agency of Russia, the freight turnover of Russian airlines in January-July 2017 amounted to 4.271 billion ton-km. This is 20.8% more than in the same period last year. Of these, 3.785 billion tonne-km (+ 22.4%) accounted for international transport, 486.2 million ton-km (+ 9.8%) domestic. The volume of transportation of goods and mail amounted to 626.47 thousand tons (+ 20.9%). The percentage of commercial load increased by 2.7 percentage points, to 69.4%.